Originally Posted by
Xyzzy
If one wanted an aircraft to disappear without a trace and without being found one would do EXACTLY what has happened here. The amount of time from the initial loss of contact to the last radar contact was over an hour, during which a bit of manouvering was done. The aircraft was flying up the Strait of Malacca at the time of its last radar contact -- in a completely different direction from where it seems to have ended up. These things all point to deliberate action, not sudden incapacitation. One doesn't make course changes an hour after being incapacitated.
Nobody expected Inmarsat to be able to pull off what it did to provide even a remote hint about aircraft location. Without that data the search area would be thousands of miles from where it currently is. Someone wanted the aircraft to disappear, never to be found.
I agree. This explanation is the most consistent with the facts. The scary part will be if another plane disappears in a similar fashion, and then another. Then we will know for sure that the intent is to paralyze air travel. With only one disappearance it would be more likely the work of one very disturbed person.
Originally Posted by
AMflier
Bad guy causes communications to go off line
Bad guy flies plane in way to evade primary radars and throw off S&R
Bad guy sets autopilot to fly south as part of plan
Bad guy becomes unable to continue flying plane and plane runs out of fuel
Maybe, but your step 3 lacks explanation. Why fly south once you are clear of the primary radars? There's nothing in that direction. I don't see how that step fits any plan other than making the plane disappear. It might fit a theory that the bad guy realized he was unable to complete his planned mission and decided to hide the aircraft in the ocean instead.
In summary it appears that the aircraft was hidden intentionally, whether that decision was made at the beginning or later. I doubt the black boxes will be able to distinguish these two possibilities.