Originally Posted by
CloudsBelow
The size of an airline is not simply # of tails in their fleet. ExpressJet is not a bigger airline than Emirates
If 777HD are new, Q400s are new, bigger 788/789 replace 763, of which many are moved to Rouge, 9-MAX fleet will be much bigger than current A321.
There's a lot of seats to fill in the years ahead
What aircraft are leaving the fleet? I dont know. A dozen 319 and 763? 20 E90s in the Boeing deal? Any others? Maybe some CR2
AC's Canadian competitors are also adding seats ... I dont get it
Net fleet seat additions aren't that high/unmanageable for the next few years.
-No leased 737s until the 20 E90s would also go (who knows if that plan is still on with the CDN $ as it is anyway)
-319s going to Rouge with currently no replacement at AC. Basically just transition of mainline routes to Rouge, marginal capacity increase by density.
-Jazz has no more Q400 deliveries on order, any CR2 leaving will not have a replacement. Regional growth seems to have stopped.
-5/5 77Ps finished delivery.
-7 788 deliveries in 2014 to offset 6 763 going to Rouge.
-3 788 2 789 deliveries in 2015 with 4 763 moving to Rouge.
**I think I have everything covered for the next few years. No 737s until 2017.
AC will have only the 763 Rouge capacity to worry about filling. They can easily fill it to Europe (Nice, BCN, EDI), winter to the Caribbean probably not an issue either.
ACs Rouge costs are competitive with Air Transat - maybe lower with 282 seat 763s coming online... AC must plan for Air Transat to fail under the pressure. The other alternative is for AC to dump the 8 A333s earlier than planned if capacity seems too high, doubt they would have trouble placing them.