That is 100% without question how I value the points. But with a caveat: my interests are long-haul, and I have a family of four to fund. We try to take 2 international trips per year as a family, plus potentially another international excursion for just my wife and I. So supporting those flights requires a fair amount of business travel, personal spend, and card churning.

I realize the calculus changes considerably for those that a) have significantly larger (or smaller?) families, shorter-haul aspirations, or a willingness to fly economy. Personally, I'm happy that people engage in value destructive behavior (by my math) in claiming hotel rewards, as that reduces the competition for a finite number of premium air awards. I'm always shocked when a family of four spends 100,000 miles to claim four, domestic round-trips from NY to Florida. That's like burning a $12,000 first class round-trip ticket to Sydney, right in front of me. Whether you value the trip at $12,000 isn't the question, as the four domestic tickets would probably run no more than $1,500. So you really only need to value a round-trip ticket to Sydney, in First, for more than $1,500 (but not necessarily up to $12,000). Plus the opportunity cost of skipping Florida in lieu of Sydney

Perhaps on that last point we can agree. Sydney > Florida!

Best, Jamie