I support this position in theory, but it has not been my experience. Those dropping in status are dropping because they didn't fly as much and are therefore less likely to be on your flight. The one exception would be the rollover PM who flies 100k/year and makes DM on rollover every other year.

I'm about the same as last year. Route and fare class basically dictate when and if I get the upgrade. 3+ hours on a v fare? Not likely. 1 hour on an H fare? 5 day window.