Originally Posted by
rehoult
Agree, though I'd note that it's actuaries that are screwing with this, not accountants. Actuaries determine the discount rate, etc..., accountants just check that AC did the math right with the numbers given to them (for a modest 7 figure fee I expect).
Considering just about every major corporate employee pension fund (excluding senior execs, of course) has faced similar problems over the past several years due to low interest rates, a high C$ and the collapse of markets in 2008, it's been hard to forecast ROIs under such circumstances. AC's pension woes had been compounded by under-contributions in the post-2001 period. However, this return to solvency suggests that AC will also be declaring hefty profits in the coming quarters...though that's always dangerous in light of wage demands and no longer having an excuse to reduce employee wages and benefits. And if the pension is heavily invested in the US, then the drop of the C$ will only boost earnings (they have in my portfolio!).
But as we've seen on the other side of the ledger, with the rise in T+/Flex fares and reduction of AE mile payment liabilities, cost of servicing the elite tier program, etc. AC's going to be making lots of money in the future unless there is some other crisis that nobody can project. While we hate what AC's done in turning the screws, it's been great for the bottom line and shareholders. And employees who, unlike those in the UA, US and CO restructurings, didn't lose their full pensions (airlines transferred their liabilities to a US government fund that takes over such corporate pensions and guarantees a smaller payment schedule).
Question is how much further AC's stock can rise after hovering around $2 at the start of last year and closing at almost $10 yesterday. That was a nice ROI for those who got in early.