Indeed, NH1011 has been arriving late recently (but I believe that's mostly due to the appalling weather at ORD and perhaps some winter headwinds). When will you be traveling?

NH may provide you with a hotel room if your arrival breaks the MCT between NRT and HND and you're unable to make the connection in NRT (I doubt they'd provide you with a taxi, but I could be wrong). However, since both segments are not on NH, they may leave you in the lurch. I would contact NH directly with your reservation information to see what they may arrange if the flight is late.

Realistically, you should arrive at HND no later than 23:45 to check in for your TG flight; the trip between NRT and HND takes about 80-90 minutes. There are later buses to TCAT departing every 10-20 minutes from where you can connect to buses going to HND, but you'll be cutting it rather close if your flight is more than about 45 minutes late.

Incidentally, there is an existing thread very similar to yours in the Japan forum, so I will move it there to get some broader opinions.