US will devalue in that they will be moving to a lesser alliance. I also expect that the few sweet spots in the US program, such as being able to easily route the North Asia award east or west, to vanish.

I just wish I had time in my schedule to shoehorn in one more HKG or Japan award with US miles...

I also expect all of the hotel programs to apply a heavy dose of stealth devaluation through category creep.

I'm cautiously optimistic about AA, with respect to where they've been in 2011-2013. Award availability has been darn near Delta-like in the past three years, with the hardest part often finding the simple MCI-ORD or -DFW segment to begin a longer trip. I'm hopeful that adding PHX, PHL, and CLT nonstops will help my odds a bit, even if total award availability stays just as stingy as it has been. Figure I'm roughly doubling my total potential routes (give or take).

I'm planning to use the remainder of my 200,000 Avios for a family trip to Europe in 2015, so I'm hoping the EI path to Europe through Dublin stays intact for at least a few more months until I can book. I always worry that they'll kill off the EI awards simply by adding so much YQ that the award becomes nonsensical.