Glad to see you changed your plan! This is just as much a potential damage issue as it is a potential theft issue.

Checked bags get treated mighty roughly in transit. It's always best to pack with that in mind.

Even a really good, really tough tripod could be damaged in transit if strapped to the outside of a bag, with no padding or protection from impacts or shearing forces. A dedicated tripod bag will add some protection, but the best way to pack a tripod is in a fully enclosed, padded bag of some sort, whether it's a dedicated tripod bag or just inside a piece of luggage with clothing packed around it.

According to your post, you're in transit as I write this, but safe travels and clear skies anyway!