People seem to think adding a runway at LHR would be both easy, quick and cheap. It would be none of those, requiring considerable demolition of existing roads, homes and additional terminal and stand construction via compulsory purchase of very expensive high value land, taking at least five years to construct, and if tunnels and other construction is required, considerable expertise.
Any LHR solution would only operate 75% of the day due to the midnight-6am curfew; a Thames Hub would operate 24/7 - so three runways at LHR = 2.25 runways in real terms vs. 4 fully operational runways at a hub. The midnight-6am period is increasingly useful for Asian traffic in a way that simply wasn't the case 20 years ago.
Probably tens of billions for any extra capacity at worn out LHR - not far short of the cost of THames Hub's greenfield construction opening up a whole new part of the country to trade and commerce represented by the Thames Hub.
Then there's the supporting infrastructure to get the additional millions using the airport to and from Heathrow.
More runways at LHR actually consolidates BA's position, as it would still be dominant there and would be able to add more services in a way that is impossible now. Moving to the Estuary would be worse for BA as its LHR slot portfolio (probably worth billions) would evaporate in value and other competitors would be able to grow properly in the UK market, increasing competition and reducing airfares.
Originally Posted by
KARFA
I had a look at this and right at the end is a passage on evolution beyond the thrid run
If the north west runway is the preferred one at the end of the day why not do this and get two new runways in one go rather than buildng a third and having to go through all this again in 30 years time.
You're right that this *would* be the best option, but only if you aren't concerned with the surrounding area. It discounts the fact that those two runways would require overflying of some of the most densely populated parts of London, or some of the leafier parts of Berkshire. It's an environmental noise/pollution/crash risk nightmare.
Plus you'd need another three or four terminals and hundreds of stands - no mention of those in the Heathrow proposals.
Plus, where's the supporting infrastructure to get all the people to and from this new hub? It would require a serious road and rail programme, adding further pollution and compulsory land purchase to an already congested part of the country.
Then where will all the extra workers live? Housing isn't getting cheaper and you can't expect baggage handlers to live in £500,000 houses. We'll all end up paying for it in increased fares.