Few things to cover based on the report this morning and the various interviews.
Firstly, I'm not entirely sure what Howard Davies was on about with the hub vs point-to-point comments. He pointed to the growth in point-to-point at the other London airports and then uses that to suggest that London doesn't need a bigger hub. Isn't the real reason that this growth has occurred because the growth has largely been from low cost and/or charter carriers. If there had been sufficient space at Heathrow I am sure that there would have been a similar level of growth at Heathrow.
Second, Howard Davies talked about the constellation of airports around London and the capacity that they provide. Unfortunately a constellation approach to the UK hub does not generate the transfer traffic that is important in developing services to new destinations in places such as China where the flow of transfer passengers is key to the success of the service. In addition, whilst there is no doubt that there is significant capacity left in the London airport system (mostly at Stansted) the fact that this capacity remains and the discounting of the landing fees by MAG surely shows that the constellation approach doesn't work.
Third, Gatwick. Yes it needs more capacity but this cannot happen in isolation. As was pointed out by Boris Johnson simply adding capacity there will not get the major global airlines to move from Heathrow.
Fourth, I can understand why the Isle of Grain is still in the list but requiring further assessment. It appears that the commission is rightly looking at more than just "airport capacity" and is actually wanting to consider the socio-economic implications of shutting Heathrow and replacing it with an airport on the other side of London. In the end however I still believe that this will not be the option taken forward because of a mix of cost, the socio-economic factors and location.
And finally Heathrow. The double length runway won't be the final option, purely because on a balance of risk it's a bad idea. I assume it was put in to show that they were considering non airport generated ideas.