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Old Dec 14, 2013, 8:44 pm
  #50  
jn in ca
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Programs: Hilton Diamond, Marriott Titanium, Radisson Gold, Hyatt Globalist, M life Gold, IHG Spire
Posts: 918
Originally Posted by Upgraded!
In my mind, there were always three justifications for the Centurion, and each of the cardholders invariably fit one category:

1. Pure wallet candy

2. Careful calculation of benefit value and found it to exceed $2,500/yr

3. Use of the card for the ultra-upscale benefits, such as yacht and jet charter, where not only is the annual fee a drop in the bucket, but the benefits far exceed the fee (though the benefits are applied to things that most cardholders don't even think about purchasing)

I think that the recent devaluations have probably only impacted the second category: those who figured out that $2,500 up front was worth, say $3-10,000 on the back end. Those who'd stay at the Mandarin Oriental anyways or those who purchase multiple lounge memberships, for example. A friend told me that his dad's card would pay for itself each year when he went to NYC for a week and stayed at the Mandarin.

So those who carefully plan how to extract benefits are the ones getting screwed, but by the same token are probably the least profitable of the three for Amex (since the wallet candy folks never use many of the perks and the ultra-wealthy spend in such large blocks that the processing fees alone are quite substantial.
I don't carry a Centurion card, so take what I write with a grain of salt.

Your breakdown of the broad groups of Centurion carriers is dead on. I'll bet the first group is the biggest these days. Amex gets bunches of people requesting a Centurion card. Not just in the US either. Lots of the Nouveau Riche in the third world are clamoring for the card, and apparently view the AF as just the cost of the bling. Lots of card carriers for whom the actual benefits are a secondary consideration.

The third group exists. I don't know how big it is, but I remember reading the story of the guy who had his Centurion concierge plan his daughter's entire wedding. For them, access to the USAir club is not why they carry the card.

Right now, Amex is probably weighing what new benefits would target each group. I don't know what's coming, but something's coming.
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