In fact, Aeroplan may be the most protected FF program in the world. It is no longer tied to AC corporately in that if that airline goes down, Aeroplan is still an operating business. Your liability in miles and award tickets lies with them, not AC. They are solvent, and can remain in business offering seats on other STAR carriers, and new ones who could then affiliate with it.
Why would CIBC be so willing to up its stake in a program that would stiff millions of Canadians? Why did so many other banks want to get in on Aeroplan? Why does Amex want in? Why does Onex still want to keep its deal on the table?
Surely these businesses do not see Aeroplan's future being solely tied to AC, and recognize it can still meet its obligations for "free" travel. Otherwise, they too would be liable for misleading us. But the FF programs of most other carriers are owned and operated as divisions of those airlines. So if UA went down, so would Mileage Plus, as would AAdvantage if AA folded.
Of course, CIBC insisted on loaning money to some pretty flakey ENRON subsidiaries...