they say a picture is worth a thousand words...not sure why photobucket isn't giving me the IMG code but below is the screenshot of the USPS calculator when i input the zip codes, weight, and size dimensions, but as you can see the quote is $24.92
[i took the libery of using Minneapolis as the shipping origin since the only info that you supplied was that she lived in MN and that city readily came to mind.]
http://s80.photobucket.com/user/gt55...tml?sort=3&o=0
i'm no genius at math but i think something is seriously wrong with your analysis if you're asserting that the two times that i've had damaged luggage somehow is statistically less probable then winning the Powerball. if only i were so lucky and could win Powerball so easily!
nowhere in that equation do you account for the number of times i've used the bag that got damaged, how many times per year the bag was used, how long i've used the bag, or other factors that i would think you would need to arrive at a proper analysis, yes?!
lastly, i don't appreciate that you're insinuating that i'm lying or fabricating information. i think that i've got better thing to do with my time than making up facts to participate on a thread like this one, on a travel forum of all places.
take a deep breath and relax, man.
ps. then after you''ve calmed down, run those numbers by someone who knows statistics because you're way off, somewhere.
Originally Posted by
mspreh
I think we need to renegotiate our shipping rates if you can do it for $25, as a distributor we ship about 2500 small parcel items per day, and we have negotiated rates with USPS, and UPS. I can't ship anything that large for $25 to NY no matter how I try to do it, and we are more than 30% off of list rates with UPS, and 18% off public USPS rates. I went to the public site, and an item that size can only ship standard post and would cost $91.83 to ship via USPS. Even with our company discount it would be more than triple your $25, sorry but you are full of it, or you don't know how to use a shipping calculator (box dimensions, and the weight of the cardboard, tape, and packing material to fit the suitcase).
You are a statistical oddity, the odds of you defying everything that we know to be true for the industry, every time you stated, would put your odds of winning Powerball at a greater percentage than having everything happen the way you are claiming it to be.
.32 on a return trip 0.8% defect rate after 24 months = 0.008 Divided by the average life of bag 1, and then divided by the average life of bag 2 (gives the ability for it to happen on a per trip basis), which is what we need to compare to buying a lottery ticket.
0.32 x 0.32 x 0.008 x 0.008 / 44 trips(bag1) /44(bag2) (average number of trips a checked bag will take in it's lifetime industry standards) = 3.3851239e-09 or that would be about 1 in 300 Billion. So if you bought 1 Powerball ticket each time you flew, your odds of winning the Jackpot would be just short of two times that of what happened to you, in your story.
Sorry I now, no longer find your words or story credible. I do believe the warranty makes you feel better, and I take my hat off to the marketing people for giving you a positive feeling.
Best of luck to you.