Very true. Close to zero

For upgrades the general rule is you can only upgrade a flight marketed (flight number) and operated (metal) by the airline of your freq flyer programme (no codeshares). All subject to the t&c's of your FFP and your paid ticket. Low cost tickets are often not eligible for upgrades. However as is the way with FFP's there are some upgrade exceptions with AA/BA/IB with higher priced economy fares.

For airline's not based in the USA, upgrades work differently. Business & first is usally paid or with some upgrades. Business and first class is not "upgrade" class for everyone with status. Free operational upgrades are uncommon

From http://www.hotels-and-travel.de/ffp/...w_sapphire.htm LAN points have a 3 year expiry. So use them or lose them.