I estimated the break-even point a bit farther out than that. 60 nights at $150 yields 22,500 more points as plat than gold. Add in arrival bonuses-- say 30 arrivals at an average of 400 points each-- and you're only to 34,500. Also, I would discount the value of these future points relative to the points available in my account today. I'd want to forecast a difference of 50k points over the next year to justify spending 40k now.