Winner: Phoenix Sky Harbor
The commitment to maintain all of the pre-merger hubs is mostly a formality, except in the case (potentially) of Phoenix. Some analysts have suggested that Phoenix, which is a low yielding hub with a major competitive presence from Southwest, could get squeezed out in the combined carrier’s network by Dallas Fort Worth to the east and Los Angeles to the west. At the very least, it was certain that the current operation would have been downsized. (My projection was for about a 33% capacity reduction and a decrease in daily departures to 250 from 300, achieved by flipping the current mainline to regional ratio of 2:1) But now? We’ll see whether the commitment to maintain the Phoenix hub “consistent with historical operations” can be enforced by the DOJ. But if it can, it guarantees that Phoenix will stay as a hub for at least three more years. And the interesting undercurrent here is that Southwest’s costs are rising, which means that the competitive environment in Phoenix could be a whole lot rosier three years from now.

Loser: International Operations at Charlotte Douglas
Because the merger has gone through, much of the international operations at the Charlotte Douglas hub are rendered obsolete. The recent trans-Atlantic expansion was primarily to Star Alliance hubs, which will likely die out when US Airways moves over to one world. Most of the Caribbean flights and the flight to Rio are much better served from the much larger market of Miami. To be clear, Charlotte will not lose its hub. But its post-merger international operation will be much smaller than it is currently.