Originally Posted by
Passmethesickbag
On a more serious note, that is part of my argument. Smisek's failure to deliver any benefits to the merged entity is likely a significant reason why the Justice Department is not happy about the proposed merger. And even if it happens, Parker is on record saying that he will *not* repeat the mistake of imposing the systems of the smaller carrier on the bigger one. I have no illusions about AA not eventually making some cuts whether or not they are merged, but given that they are starting from a higher level of UA not only a year ago, but also today, and very much so a year from now, and given that their phones are still ringing off the hook with defecting UA elites, I think they are actually mindful of which side their bread is buttered on.
I would say:
(1) you are correct that watching what UAL has done played a major roll in what DOJ is doing. Jeff has acted like he has an oligopoly (cutting benefits, raising revenues, not competing where he can avoid it) and DOJ has used that, and will use that at trial to show what Parker would do.
(2) While I don't trust Parker, we now have a real live experiment, as Jeff takes a hatchet to MP. "Changes you will like" that will primarily impact those with the kind of miles, and personal interest and resources, to pay 100-120K miles to fly to foreign counties. The MileagePlus (can we now call it "MileageMinus"?) changes almost exclusively impact elite level travelers, and primarily those at the top levels (who have the most miles).
If there is a flood of UA FFers to DL and AA, you can bet that Horton (who will be running AA when the merger is blocked) will make sure not to tamper with award receptions on AA any more.
There is currently a theory pushed by analysts, claimed bankers, and other "savvy" folks, that airlines should slash benefits and they will clean up since travel is a commodity. Jeff falling on this face and getting fired in 6-9 months as UALs results get worse and worse, may have a good side in reinforcing the value of loyalty programs and good service in the airline industry.