Originally Posted by
hobo13
It was a bubble.... and as we know, bubbles are neither created nor popped by any one entity. This time it was the airlines, banks and bloggers all contributing to the orgy until the airlines realized that they were getting the short end of the stick. And they ultimately controlled the product.
The interesting question to me is where things go from here. The UA devaluation hasn't entirely killed the model -- such as a revenue based award chart would -- it's just made it a lot more work.
I agree, it was a bubble fed by lots of players.
But credit card churning and manufactured spending certainly did drive the inflationary environment. Would devaluation have happened even without those factors? I lean toward yes...but I am not entirely convinced.
In any case, I feel worst for folks that hoarded millions of miles. What a terrible, terrible investment, stocking up on a currency whose worth is 100% controlled by an entity that profits most by your not spending them.
Originally Posted by
eponymous_coward
FT is a miles and points resource that makes money off of the hawking of credit cards and desire of people to travel in premium cabins, so this is definitely p/k/b here. Don't delude yourself into thinking that it's all the fault of those EEEEEVIL bloggers, and we're all so innocent that sugar couldn't melt in our mouths that are enjoying our 4 mile trips to HKG. The maximization and exploits get done here too, folks.
So, no, I don't buy it. This is a matter of airlines realizing the value of selling a fiat currency that can be inflated at will. Just like when MIT teams figured out how to make a bunch at blackjack, it was a matter of time before the loopholes get shut down. Might as well be someone who gets to fly the planes. Who is to say a blog reader is more or less "worthy" than you or I?
Did UA end honoring those 4 mile trips to HKG? Serious question because I actually booked a couple but they were summarily canceled!
It's correct that many have taken advantage of the things the blogs talk about. But my hypothesis is that blogs and seminars opened up the game to the masses...including 'rubbing it in the faces' of the airlines themselves. No way in hell Smisek cares about what a bunch of nerds talk about in an IBB. But when a blogger gets quoted in USA Today or appears on Travel Channel talking about gaming the system for premium cabin travel, well, he might notice. And to reiterate, it's just a hypothesis, not an assertion.