Originally Posted by
BearX220
There will always be a business case for VLAs to serve the world's top 20 air hubs, particularly as slots there grow more precious. It's just a narrower case than before, and the population of VLAs (747s and A380s) will continue to decline.
In support of your statement about "the population of VLAs (747s and A380s) will continue to decline".
The 777-9X has the same passenger load and range as the 747 and carries more freight (I believe the 777-300ER carries more freight than a 744).
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2013/1...-777x-success/
You'll have to scroll down towards the end of the web page (it is long). There is a comparison table between the A350, 777X and 787 models.
Going forward, the only routes that will require a 748 or 388 will be routes that suffer from ETOPS restrictions. And as ETOPS restrictions get looser and looser, those routes will eventually disappear.