I was wondering the following:
I have a segment FRA-YYZ in LH Y on my F award. The ticketing department still hasn't called me back to exchange the ticket, and my past experience has been is if they haven't called yet then I've been able to make another change without paying the change fee (I changed a ticket thrice once before ticketing got to it.)
I have been watching FRA-YYZ open up in F for the last month or two incredibly consistently at T-14. There hasn't been a single day in 2 months where it has failed on me. So my gamble is at T-14 I can ring them up and switch over to F for no additional charge or YQ. The odds seem to be 100% unless LH changes their policy (this is a route with old F, so I think it's even more unlikely.)
However, there is now a FRA-YYZ seat in AC J available. I would pay another $70 or so in YQ, but now I'll have a guaranteed J seat. If LH F opens up, then I'll have to pay the $90 fee to move back to it.
TL;DR:
- If I gamble, I will get LH F at no extra cost. If I lose I get a "nice" 8 hour ride in LH Y.
- If I play it safe and pay another $70, I will be riding home in AC J. If my LH F seat opens up, then I pay another $101.70 to Aeroplan and thus have paid $170 more than I need to.