We're in the same situation as OP, flying to VCE next month via AF on AS-mile-funded business class award tickets.

On our outbound JNU-SEA-SFO flights, JNU-SEA upgraded immediately upon purchase last November, and then SEA-SFO mysteriously upgraded about a month later.

The return LAX-SEA-JNU legs are still showing First Class waitlisted and after having read this thread, I hold very little hope of getting the bump-up since class of service is showing as the dreaded W.

Row 17 will serve as our re-entry into reality <gleep>.