Agreed that this is usually an 'easy' upgrade for EXP. However, I think a bit more information would be useful:

You note you are going in mid November, and haven't booked your tickets yet; how close are you to T'giving week? Obviously HNL is a popular destination during the holiday, and lots of elites (myself included) book well in advance w/companions we hope to upgrade. I'd look closely at the seat map: are the MCE/Exit row seats fully booked? Does EF still show F7 or has it dropped well below that, etc.