I think there is a very good likelihood that some major devaluation of lower-tier elite status will happen... whether or not the merger happens.

I also think that going to 4 tiers is very likely the way that devaluation will happen.

Neither is guaranteed. Nevertheless, given how airlines in general and AA in particular seem to be in the habit of doing things these days, being an Eeyore and assuming that it's already a done deal (and that it will happen in the worst possible way for low-value mileage runners) is the best psychic defense for when it does.

Just sayin'.

(Same thing with the merger, BTW. I hope it doesn't happen. I hope if it does, that the present US is not a model for what it gets. Nevertheless, my present behavior is based on the assumption that both will happen -- I requalified early this year, and am burning miles this fall rather than going on more paid tickets after requalification like I would most years.)