Well, the general consensus on Chase is to keep the card at least 6+ months, as you have done before. (Which obviously requires paying the annual fee the first year if it's not wavied the first year.)

Also, what matters a lot is whether the card is for partner points or the bank's own points (UR in the case of Chase). So that's at least part of the reason that people are asking you which specific cards.

But exactly how clawbacks work might even vary from partner to partner (since they have to involve the partner, obviously, on partner clawbacks!).

And since most people want to avoid clawbacks at all costs, I'm not sure how many recent "experimenters" you'll find to give you data on how it works recently. (Most of the people who gave us data on clawbacks did so because they didn't realize their stuff be clawed back until too late, not because they were looking to see whether it woud be clawed back or not!)


But here's another thing to worry about (besides blacklisting) if you now cancel. If they do claw back, that still precludes you from applying for the card, possilby ever again! So if you lose the bonus now, you will not be able to get it later!

So please do the math, and see that the value of the bonus is (hopefully) much more than the annual fee you have to pay once (if you only keep the card up to about 11 months), while the cost of trying to avoid paying it may be much greater than you had imagined.