Originally Posted by
Kootur
This merger is almost past the point of no return. US sold their company HQ in Tempe. Most of AA's former leadership has moved on as they were told they would not be a part of this new company. Gates have already been combined. USairs 330's coming this year have the new american branding in them. US has stopped selling codes on UA flight and has changed it's flight numbers to mirror AAs.
This one is really hilarious! Your post implies that US sold its headquarters building, but that's not accurate. One REIT sold its ownership interest in the Tempe HQ to another REIT earlier this year. US continues to own the 25% interest that it's always owned.
If Parker has actually jumped the gun as you allege, that just demonstrates his abject stupidity. None of it's relevant to antitrust law and whether the merger will be permitted.
Originally Posted by
Kootur
Not to mention all the sensitive company info that has already been passed around. The merger for all purposes has already been completed the only left to do is flip the switch.
Again, irrelevant. If the government can show that the merger violates section 7, the merger won't happen.
Originally Posted by
Kootur
Will the complaint hold up in court. Experts say in the airline industry say no.
If the doj could prove that without a doubt their data showed this than yes they could win. But their data has been shown to be flawed.
"Without a doubt?" Sorry, sport, this isn't a criminal case; it's a civil case. "More likely than not," not "beyond a reasonable doubt."
See, it's ignorance of the legal system like I've pointed out that run rampant among
pilots and various industry insider bloggers. As I've said - they know the airline industry. Collectively, they're as ignorant about antitrust law as the vast majority of Americans.
Originally Posted by
Kootur
I don't know what holly was thinking but I'm pretty sure that she knows that AA can't double it's size in 5 years. Either way, hortons stand alone plan would have added excess capacity to the market and any gains in pricing would have been lost. If the merger for some reason doesn't happen I don't think anyone will sign off on an organic growth plan. That suicide for any airline.
20% growth over five years (the actual plan, not Holly Hegeman's ignorant rantings) equates to a mere 3.7% per year for five years.
And whether that growth is possible or whether it would fatally destabilize the industry is wholly irrelevant to the Section 7 analysis. If the merger violates the law (and it just might), then nothing that Hegeman or Snyder or any other Wall St analyst or blogger has written changes that.
We get it - you desparately want the merger to occur. The positive impact on pilots' W-2s is very clear.
IMO, the merger is dead. Finished. Over.