Originally Posted by
Random Flyer
I wish I could find a way not to see this in a negative light. I really do. But I just don't buy the explanation that a decline in the Yen has anything to do with it. It's been my observation that the Japanese carriers tend to attract more Japanese clientele and the US carriers more US clientele. If any carriers would be hit by a Yen "devaluation", it would be the Japanese carriers. The US based ones might even benefit from it. But then we have also been told that NH has recently doubled its frequency. I think this says it all.
I don't know (and frankly, don't care) whether the Japanese currency devaluation is actually impacting revenue. That Delta and United have pointed to it is good enough for me:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ency-pain.html
Delta (if not UA) has also mentioned the yen in their press releases as excuses for lower-than-expected unit revenue growth.
Debates about whether Japanese people prefer AA/UA/DL or Japanese airlines are completely irrelevant; if the yen situation is impacting travel to/from Japan (as airlines are claiming), then AA shares that pain due to its immunized joint venture with JAL. And UA shares that pain due to its joint venture with NH. Regardless of whether Japanese people prefer American carriers or Japanese carriers. Delta doesn't have a joint venture partner but it's the largest carrier to/from Japan of any airline, and I'm certain that it carries large numbers of Japanese passengers (just like AA and UA do).
The facts clearly point to a revenue problem with travel to/from Japan right now, and if AA and JAL jointly believe that reducing frequency on ORD-NRT makes sense, I'm going to defer to them. This reduction isn't a unilateral decision by AA; AA and JAL jointly decide capacity to/from Asia on AA and JAL.
As I pointed out earlier, the sky may be falling, but I don't see this reduction from daily to 5x weekly as evidence that the sky is falling.
To those who insist that this temporary frequency reduction is an ominous precursor to cancellation of the route, I disagree. AA pilots will become very angry if AA cancels long-haul flying yet JAL does not. That alone will help keep AA metal flying.