Australian airlines can access 45 frequencies per week between SYD/MEL/BNE/PER and HKG (not counting what QF is already using) and unlimited from other Australian ports.
I see no reason why the Australian government should allow additional ex-Hong Kong frequencies while there are 45 available ex-Australia frequencies.
If negotiations fall through then CX better fast track discussions for a tie up with Virgin Australia.
Why? VA doesn't have enough aircraft to operate to HKG, unless they want to pull their new A330s off domestic routes or drop their 777 frequencies to LAX or AUH. A CX-VA tie up doesn't give CX what it wants, more frequencies into Australia.