Originally Posted by
lizs
Yup...as US Silver my upgrade percentage is 75%! Mostly due to flying odd flight schedules or dumb luck but I doubt this is going to come out positively for me since I'm at the bottom of the food chain
This isn't me throwing a fit or saying it's unfair because if you're Silver you don't fly enough for them to care too much, but if the upgrade system changes to me only being able to upgrade 3 or 4 times a year, one way, on a transcon flights it just won't be worth it to me to keep the allegiance to US/AA.
Well, given that top tiers in both programs get CPUs, but on AA mid and bottom tier have to burn upgrade certs, I'd say all else equal your odds are the same or better on AA. Look at it this way, on US a Plat, Gold or Silver gets automatically upgraded - they don't have to allocate any resources to doing it, or even decide whether they want it. On AA, they do, as you earn 500 certs by flying (or can purchase) and have to actively request the upgrade.
Odds are, I will never be more than a 25k tier elite, but I'm thinking my odds are better if the AA system is adopted. Odds on the transcons will be equally low, I'd think, but on some leisure routes I'd probably make out well. Not to mention, I'm not hub-captive, but it also means I have to connect once to get almost anywhere - I can always burn an upgrade on a short leg if I need a bigger bag or weight allowance - and odds are I'll get it.