I would say most are cancelling before the anniversary date. My personal goal is to get 200k in AA miles every year for 2 J seats to Europe; these are worth to me around $8,000. You probably cannot buy a Business class round trip for $4000 for summer travel but that is all I would personally pay for it. With a combination of AA Citi Visa (50k), AA Citi Bus (40k) plus some Starwood AX and a decent monthly spend we always seem to get there and rarely pay the renewal fee. It really helps to have each spouse on a 2 year cycle.