Originally Posted by
iahphx
I would also urge you to fly sooner than later, because I still believe the economics are horrible for Frontier. They're going to have to either raise fares (which will negate the value) or offer more frequencies to places that people want to go. Otherwise, they'll never be able to achieve high enough yields to afford the fuel bill.
Much the same was said about TTN - there were many non-believers. Yet the airline has just renewed its lease there for five years:
http://www.centraljersey.com/article...5516831552.txt
"Only six months into its current lease agreement with Trenton-Mercer Airport and Mercer County, Frontier Airlines’ request to extend its lease to five years has been accepted by the Administration, according to Mercer County Executive Brian M. Hughes."
They have already flown TTN-Florida through most of a winter so most of those questions are answered and the remaining "test" of TTN is the non-Florida schedule - in winter.
The surprise, to me, has been the strength of TTN-ATL and it is possible to argue they could increase frequency but I would not expect that to happen until next spring - they have to see how it does in winter at 4 x weekly. I would not fall over in shock if that was reduced in the slowest weeks (to 3 x weekly) just as they have flown extra sections in the summer (yesterday morning, for example).
Similarly, TTN-RDU, which was over-scheduled at 6 x weekly and (somewhat to my surprise) is doing great at 5 x weekly.
As to ILG, DEN is presently gangbusters with most fares up around and over $200 one way for the next four weeks. But the lesson from history here is that DEN-PHL was gangbusters in summer, misery in winter and I think they are right to reduce it to 3 x weekly for the winter.
Historically, Q1 - winter - is Frontier's most difficult quarter and many of the moves the airline is making are to resolve this problem. So Florida, from both TTN and ILG, is critical. Everything else is gravy and, if it becomes necessary, expendable.
Same rules apply to DEN. The only way this will work is with high load factors, decent fares, ruthless use of resources - and lower costs:
http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...assengers.aspx
"Frontier Airlines Is Really Packing In Passengers
Frontier reported a load factor of 94% in June; that number represents the percentage of seats filled by paying passengers (adjusting for the length of each flight). For the full quarter, that figure was 91%.
Frontier has made a remarkable turnaround, considering that it filed for bankruptcy back in 2008 and a number of industry experts expected it to file for bankruptcy yet again in 2011. Recently, the company has consistently maintained one of the highest load factors in the country, which suggests that passengers are eagerly embracing Frontier's low fares.
That said, Frontier needs to continue reducing its cost structure in order to match the profitability of Allegiant and Spirit, its ULCC rivals. If it can do so, Frontier's earnings will skyrocket, benefiting Republic Airways shareholders or a potential acquirer. However, it will take several years to push through all of the necessary cost cuts to reach that point, so patience is a must for investors."
I would be surprised if ILG-IAH is a year-round route and I doubt they would nurse it. Far better to put that aircraft to somewhere that doesn't need nursing - Florida, say, or any snowbird route.