My friend (financial journalist) is quite consumed by Visa/MasterCard marketing; the basic claim is that by 2016 we will all pay by our mobile phones.

MasterCard recently started it's pilot projects around Europe: PayPass in NFC capable mobile phones.

What is your realistic outlook on the future of payments, without marketing bias?

My reservations with the issue:
- Different market participants with different interests (Apple will not put NFC into their mobiles)
- My guess is that airlines with their frequent flyer programs will not be interested in scraping plastic cards as well (guess why)
- If you are like me and let your mobile run out of battery you will not be able to pay as well. That is not in the interest of the parties involved. (I have found the inner contradiction!)
- AMEX's position? I don't know.
[- Real innovation happens around BitCoin and other alternative providers, and the big players, Visa, MasterCard and banks just trying to catch up with their 100 year old business models (50 years in the case of plastic).

It is a common critique to banks that their business model is just 100 years old, doesn't really hold well in the digital age.

If I remember correctly, this was a good one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9EI2PrDpmw]