Ok, so as expected, pretty pointless to purchase and apply upgrades for these flights. I'll check the kiosk when we check in as I hear there are sometimes paid upgrades available there the day of, and these sound like they are guaranteed rather than a request that's unlikely to be fulfilled.

I wish AA offered guaranteed paid upgrades online as BA sometimes does when they fill up Econ and want to make some $$ instead of having to do free op-ups. Ah well.