There are 365 days in most years.* If we have an average of 100 mileage runners per day then we're looking at 36,500 mileage runs per year. That seems low to me. However, if we have an average of 1000 mileage runners per day, then we're looking at 365,000. That seems high to me.
But even at that high mark, mileage runs constitute a drop in the travel bucket. And with United's "encouraging" mileage runners to acquire UA-branded credit cards (with high minimum spends), that enhanced revenue will further blunt any impact mileage runners may have, be they numbered in tens or hundreds of thousands.
+1 - Exactly my point but put much more clearly.
Originally Posted by
AlreadyThere
You really think so? After hearing in these forums from the number of 1Ks looking to "top off" their miles esp. towards year end, you think 100-1000 TOTAL in the system is about right? Even if you're just counting "pure" mileage runs, not discretionary trips that wouldn't have been taken except for the mileage, I'd say that's low. In December, WAY low.
But I agree with the posts that say that MR folks are not the main targets of PQD, but rather people flying *A partners and crediting to MP. Currently they get the full benefits of the UA program while sending profitable premium cabin money elsewhere (and, dare I say it, occasionally getting
slightly better product in the bargain
).
On your first point, I suspect
on average MRs are in the hundreds per day, certainly less than a thousand per day. Sure the spread will be uneven (higher MRs on weekends and late in the year) which is a function of a) cheaper tickets when loads are lower, b) people having jobs during the week and c) more urgency to "top off" late in the year. In any case a drop in the ocean and not the major cause of an overly large elite pool.
Thanks for agreeing on my *A flyer hypothesis, the only thing that has me questioning this is why DL have done the same despite the fact that the effect from ST flyers must be much much smaller.