Even more data after the markets closed:

Cashcall repriced same day and it is now 4.5% NCNF for 30 year conforming.
3.625% NCNF 15 year conforming
4.875% NCNF 30 year jumbo

To get back to 4.000% on a 30 year this afternoon, you have to pay a whopping 4.5 points. That is $13,500 not including the other costs of the loan on $300k. Points and miles won't make up $13.5+k.