today I found a decent flight for $1165 for value fares which I can swing. Guys that fly this route, on a Monday out and Friday back, what's my chances from getting U as an MVP from LAX - DCA, DCA-LAX? If my chance of getting U is less than 50/50 then I'll just do the Virgin America flight and spend more time at home.

Flight Departs Arrives
Alaska Alaska 2403
Operated by Horizon Air as Alaska Airlines
Check in with Alaska Airlines
Coach (B) Not applicable for upgrade | Nonstop | Details
San Jose, CA (SJC)
9:30 am Mon, Sep 16 Los Angeles, CA (LAX)
10:57 am Mon, Sep 16
Alaska Alaska 6
Coach (B) Instant upgrade unavailable | Nonstop | Details
Los Angeles, CA (LAX)
12:50 pm Mon, Sep 16 Washington, DC-Reagan National (DCA)
8:56 pm Mon, Sep 16
Distance: 2,611 mi | Duration: 8hours 26minutes
Alaska Alaska 7
Coach (B) Instant upgrade unavailable | Nonstop | Details
Washington, DC-Reagan National (DCA)
9:00 am Fri, Sep 20 Los Angeles, CA (LAX)
11:27 am Fri, Sep 20
American American 2676 (Alaska 4144)
Operated by SkyWest Airlines as American Eagle
Check in with American Airlines
Coach (B) Not applicable for upgrade | Nonstop | Details
Los Angeles, CA (LAX)
2:00 pm Fri, Sep 20 San Jose, CA (SJC)
3:10 pm Fri, Sep 20
Distance: 2,611 mi | Duration: 9hours 10m