Sobeys is tied up with BMO as a credit card issuer for quite a number of years so I don't see how they could move to CIBC. And why would CIBC dump AE for Sobeys, which itself has a relationship with AE? Doesn't add up. Since there is no AE grocery partner in the west or Atlantic Canada, and given AE is integrated into the Club Sobeys program, the logical move would be to dump AM both out west and in the far east, and go with the CS/AE option. Part of the benefits of running its own program is direct access to farm customer data.

However, the downside is too radical a change all at once out west if AM is dropped. As I noted last night, AM is far more popular in Alberta than AE (I lived there for 25 years and did a lot of market research across the west), and both rebranding the stores and dropping the AM tie-in might be a bit much to swallow. I suspect the status quo on that front will remain for a year or more until the physical changes are completed...as well as timed to coincide to renewals with AM in the east and west (and what contract terms exist between AM and Safeway in case of such a sale). Nor can we discount when renewal comes up between AM and Metro in Ontario and Quebec.

With all these factors we could see a very major realignment in the retail loyalty field as AE and AM fight it out between their grocery partners. Who has the greater leverage, the loyalty companies or the grocery chains? (And of course banks also come into play, since BMO is aligned with AM even though it is also Sobeys' cc partner.)

Too many variables to figure this out at such an early stage. Best we can do is "stayed tuned" for further details....