Originally Posted by
fastair
It appears that yield number declines YoY aren't just a UA problem, but could be an industry trend (one that DL is bucking though) as both AA and WN had drops for May. AA was down 1.8% while WN was down 2% (DL was up 0.5%.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americ...222235518.html Granted, this is just a single month snapshot, but it is the most recent data, and with AA's and WN's limited exposure to the currency issues in Japan, which DL and UA have stated, it points to more of an industry wide issue than a specific cause.
And on June 10, UA finally released its so-so operational numbers for May:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/united...201500816.html
The good news for UA is that traffic fell slightly less than the capacity cuts, which is better than the other way around.
It's quite apparent that the sequester's impact continues to be felt industry-wide, and I'm confident that the industry CEOs will be singing from that hymnal in 5-7 weeks as they make excuses, err, explain the lackluster second quarter results.
Originally Posted by
fastair
If as many FT members have surmised tons all of UA's HVFs are switching their high yield tickets to AA/WN, they must have all taken May off.
Given UA's dismal revenue performance in 2012 compared to AA (UA's revenue was essentially flat while AA's revenue was up by almost $900 million), it's clear that AA took revenue away from UA in 2012 due to Smisek's failings. That damage has already been done, and there's scant evidence that Smisek has been able to undo that damage thus far in 2013.
Recall that the Wall St analysts were unanimous in late 2011 that AA's 2012 revenue would be down by 10% or more, and that UA, DL and US stood to pick up that revenue.
Instead, Smisek handed AA the best possible gift as AA picked up $876 million or so of additional revenue while UA added about $42 million of additional revenue in 2012. Did AA pick up that revenue at the expense of US or DL? Perhaps, but both of those airlines also reported impressive revenue improvements in 2012. The most likely source of the revenue improvements at US, DL and AA for 2012 would be the businesses and high value elites that fled UA.
For May, 2013, no network airline has reported impressive numbers, but UA's release today shows no signs that UA is recovering from the self-inflicted wounds of March 3, 2012. That damage is evident, and continues to this day.