Originally Posted by
RustyC
Randy has generally been upbeat about the FF programs' futures, so if he turns around it would be a really bad sign.
The cartel-like behavior we're seeing from the legacies (artificially limiting supply to push fares up) is creating a real opening for LCCs and ULCCs. If you look at where Spirit has added flights, for example, some routes, like ATL-DFW, really look like shots across the bow at legacies. They've had quite a take on that route as well. It's not the greatest of flying experiences and you can get really nickel and dimed, but if legacy carriers push things too far it looks more attractive.
For its part, Southwest could take away a lot of leisure business as long as it has a better bag and change policy.
On the FF programs, I think the non-flight miles are what's going to push it over. Delta already has terrible availability on low-tier awards unless you're looking for, say, Des Moines in January. Eventually there's a tipping point where even infrequent travelers cease to believe their miles will be realistically redeemable. In the meantime the airlines happily sell the non-flight miles.
So the futue model might be a points-based program like CapitalOne and redemptions as cash equivalents on LCCs and ULCCs.
While you make some valid points I think the airlines will not venture into the "Capitol One" like programs. Their purpose is to retain flyers to their brand and if two or more airlines chose that type of program then why do it ? No one would have that "loyalty" to fly them.
Spirit is an airline that in my opinion and ONLY mine is one to stay away from. Thats all I'll say.
I fly a lot of miles a year and thus accumulate and use them to travel to Europe every year. Either FC or Business and frankly have not had that much an issue getting tickets. Now there have been times when I have had to keep trying and naturally adjust my vacation plans around the award tickets, but hey thats ok, nothing is perfect.
My home airline is Alaska so I am at the mercy of their "partners" for all my award travel and even then it works. Also AS is really good about contacting their partners to assist you.