Originally Posted by
BlueEyedDevil
But what is likely to happen?
1) A reduction in first class and business class award seats. As airlines get better at nearing 100% occupancy on planes I expect first class to nearly disappear and business class to reduce in size in order to add more economy class seats. If there is an average of 4 paid bus class per flight expect those 12 chairs to be reduced to 4 and for 21 new economy class chairs to be placed in their wake.
2) A devaluation of airlines miles. Airlines will still make all their money by selling miles to credit cards and "having a frequent flyer program" but we will see what Delta is doing right now expand to other carriers. The days of 20,000 miles getting you a flight will go away and it will cost more like 40,000 for an economy seat. This won't happen at once, it will be a measured set up 20% increases over 4-5 years. See: Hotel loyalty program devaluations in 2012 and 2013
I don't think the number of seats in first and business that we will see are going to be as impacted as you might think. Remember that as they continue to cram more seats into the plane and passengers continue to get larger (at least in America) more are opting for seats with more room. Plus there is still a substantial amount of people who have the disposable income to opt for first class. Also first class seats give passengers a way to spend their miles. I am sure the airline would rather you purchase a $400 ticket and then spend several thousand miles upgrading that ticket. Then they can, A) resale that seat you are now vacating, and B) keep you from occupying a coach seat on another flight. Airlines are more than happy to encourage you to spend your miles on things other than an actual ticket. Plus coach seats are naturally easier to sale than premium seats. Finally there is always the benefit of rewarding loyalty with a better seat, but then again they aren't "thanking you" for being loyal, they are just moving your butt out of a coach seat they can sell. So while there may be some reduction, I doubt it will be as drastic as reducing it down to four seats from twelve (unless it is US Airways).
Regarding a devaluation of airline miles, I do agree. Although the extent I think will be largely impacted by what Southwest does. I feel this devaluation will happen as they try and push customers towards upgrading seats or purchasing items from their online shopping malls.
Originally Posted by
edgewood49
good post and I concur . Sadly there are many other there that feel they are "entitled", therefor should always be in FC at coach prices! I see and hear them at the gates constantly.
Thanks for the kind words. I agree about the entitlement that seems to be present among most frequent flyers. However I am not surprised that this attitude occurs.
-Nathan