"QUOTE"
There are two separate questions here:
Will either or both of the travelers be eligible for upgrades?
What is the chance of the upgrade, if available, of clearing?

Without some indication of status and the day of week of travel, the 2nd question is hard to guess at. Higher elites have had good success with upgrades to the islands, middle elites some success. Non-elites on busy days is probably not a good bet.




Thanks for your reply, not sure of status ( says just member online) just got the card in October and met spent requirement, haven't flown yet.
Date of flight is Tuesday, Jan 7th.