I keep point balances across several programs (SPG, Marriott, Hyatt, and Club Carlson) so I'm never fully invested in any single program. I use my points for stays in not very aspirational places and consider the points I earn from paid stays as a rebate towards future stays. I don't keep large point balances, and will burn points if I can get a decent value from them. What I call a decent value is probably lower than what most FT'ers would value a point at, but my focus on points is to save cash, not to take an amazing vacation somewhere exotic.

The few times that I have saved for an exotic vacation, the rule of thumb is that I have to earn those points in 10 months or less, or else I'll consider paying cash. The devaluations that occurred this year are not the first, and won't be the last. There are usually warning signs, but the general rule is that most points/miles lose value over time.