Friends,

Gearing up for a SAN<->LIH trip in late July for 4 of us. They’re just launching their new nonstop, and it’s competitively priced, and they’re offering double miles during that period on this route.

However, it's up in the $700+ RT range right now. I know it's peak period, but I'm hoping there'll be *some* decline soon before it sticks permanently high closer to July.

A few questions for you pros:
1. Any educated guesses as to whether fare will decrease?
2. Could checking seat availability on the flights give a clue (e.g., it’s 2/3 sold, so probably won’t go down.)? If yes, where’s a good source (calling AS?)
3. Assuming yes to #2, any rules of thumb (e.g., if ½ full or less, probably will be a fare decrease.)

Am trying not to buy high, then have to refare at a lower fare and be stuck with Alaska$ that will be difficult to use for future flights.

Thanks very much!