I have read the sticky basic info on the *A FF programs and I know that I am borderline for the base <50k recommendations. I also have a slightly odd travel pattern, so I'm hopping some of the FT regulars will have some sage advice. (Apologies in advance if this is long.) First the basics:

(1) What is your home airport?
LIS (Lisbon, PT)

(2) What types of fares do you usually buy?
All economy discount, with some flexibility over the exact class (e.g., I can usually request and get economy tickets with classes that earn miles so long as they price jump isn't too great. However, normally full Y is not available.)

(3) How many miles do you usually fly each year?
For the last two years I have flown 35k-45k each year. This year I was about 5k short of 50k (*A gold for me on UA). My patterns will likely keep me in the just shy of 50K range for the next few years, but I might cross the boundary.

(4) Do you have any kind of status at present? What is it?
I have been *A silver on CO/UA for the last three years.

(5) What is most important to you in a FFP?
I would like to be able to spend miles for TATL or long-haul upgrades and redemption for regional travel in Europe and the East, extra luggage allowances (especially ski/snowboard equip) and lounge access (in that order of importance).

(6) Which routes do you fly most often?
I fly approximately 2-3 TATL trips a year to the US, 1-2 TPAC trips to china/Japan and a few regional flights around the EU. There is usually one long-haul odd-ball. Most of my miles earned are on the long-haul trips, especially as some of the EU regional flights don't earn miles on any class below Y.

(7) Preferred Airlines?
I have enjoyed AC, LH, LX in the past (and originally, I found CO reasonable, but the post-merger experience, except for the E+, hasn't impressed me). A good quality economy service is the most important, plus easy flights ex-LIS. UA and TP (and US, with a limited schedule) have the only directs to the US.

(8) Do you travel for work or pleasure?
I am an academic, and my travel is a combination of work and pleasure. I often dovetail trips to maximize the benefit of a TATL or TPAC flight. However, I travel within the EU for pleasure and am mixing low-cost carriers with my the majors depending on benefits (e.g. luggage allowances) and routes.

My three big questions are":
Should I abandon UA MP for one of the three recommended FPs for flyers who don't cross 50k a year or a EU program or a different FP? If I should switch, would getting miles on the EU carriers that I'm likely to fly (LH,LX) be better or getting more status on one of the three recommended for <50k. Finally, based on my review of the <50k programs, the Miles&Smiles seemed likely to be the best for my pattern, but I am concerned that I may have missed something regarding either the qualifying miles or redemption availability so any advice would be appreciated.

I was told in the past (here) that based on my travel patterns the US carriers benefits and redemption policies might make up for the lower achievable status. However, the reduction in benefits for UA MP silver (especially the TATL bag allowance) has made be reconsider. One last question, which I realize isn't necessarily for this forum, is is there any chance that One World or Skyteam would be better for my flight patterns? This year I think I'm already committed to *A but I could consider changing for next year if the FT community recommended it.

Thanks in advance for you time and advice.