I've been vexed by the cost risk of buying points outside of meeting spend targets for bonus offers - meaning, what is the optimum strategy to buy miles/points on an ongoing basis to accumulate miles/points.

I used my friendly Excel spreadsheet to run 5 different scenarios with the following assumptions:

Option A - continue buying higher cost/lower denom gift cards at OD and convert to VRs then flush through BB

Option B - Use Amex SPG card to load a Target Amex (1pt/$), then flush through Costco ATMs

Option C - Use the Capital One Venture card (2pt/$) to load a Target Amex, then flush through Costco ATMs

Option D - Use the Travelocity Amex (1pt/$) to load a Target Amex, then flush through Costco ATM

Option E - A hypothetical situation where I could buy money orders or gift checks by credit card for the standard fee (thus no need to flush them as they are deposit instruments)

Here are the results in either cost/point or net profit

Option A - cost per point - 0.00853

Option B - cost per point - 0.0114 (assumes the 1.2 post transfer value)

Option C - $28 profit per $5000 loading cycle

Option D - $125 profit per $20000 loading cycle (you need to redeem blocks of 20,000 points)

Option E - cost per point - 0.0164

So based on my observation, the most optimal way to manufacture spend is continuing the OD/GC+CVS/VR routine and sucking up the higher fees for the lowest cost per point.

Any other thoughts, or can anyone poke some holes in my theories or calculations? I left out the MVD option with a cash advance drain as the end result is pretty much the same as buying money orders or gift checks from the cost/benefit perspective.