Originally Posted by
MrMarket
Anecdotes are all I have when it comes to this but: For my first five years as a 1K (up until last year) I never comparison shopped my airfares. I just booked on UA (unless UA didn't fly there). The bulk of the motivation for that behavior was the MP program. I may be the only person who thought that way. I'm finding myself feel the same way toward DL (slowly, but surely now). UA is going to have a heck of a time seeing the lion-share of my business again unless DL losses it.
I think the least likely thing to happen is for DL to go down. They worked themselves up from the bottom. It must have been a huge effort. The kudos that DL is earning today are the result of a lot of hard work, not good luck. They have created a series of competitive advantages that, for this reason, are likely to be sustained. Furthermore, they're not subject to the merger insanity.
AA, on the other hand, is a wildcard, because we don't know if they will merge with US nor do we know how that merger will go. AA could go down, get better, or stay the same. DL seems very solid.
As to your other point: It's not just you. For 10 years, I flew exclusively UA unless UA simply didn't serve the destination. Now, I'll do everything possible to avoid UA unless they are both fastest and cheapest. Since I'm in SFO, I expect them to win on that criteria from time to time, especially as they are dropping prices to compete since they can't compete on any other basis than price anymore. This is PRASM erosion, this is margin erosion, this is what the race to the bottom looks like. They took an airline that could routinely command a fare premium and turned it into a trash heap that is reduced to competing on price. Classy.
As an example: Looking at SFO-LAS. Both UA and VX have comparable schedules and direct flights and both are at $137. I'll likely choose UA because with UA I get miles, which is effectively a discount off the $137, making them cheaper than VX. I guess with VX I get points too but unless I fly more on VX, the VX miles aren't as useful as UA miles. For example, with those UA miles I can upgrade Y to J on a *A transoceanic.
If UA weren't competing on price, and they were charging the premium that they used to charge, reflecting the value of the miles that can be redeemed on the *A network, then I'd choose VX at this point. Because, I know the odds of a hassle with VX are infinitely lower than same with UA.
This is just a small example, though. Repeat x millions of customers x hundreds of millions of flights, most of which are more expensive than this simple one, and you've got an ugly story.
Incidentally, I looked at AA too, but their flight is more expensive, and travel time is 2x longer than UA or VX. Precisely why I find the AA status match to be so hard to use out of SFO.