There is simply no way of predicting outcome. The ATT-Tmo (failed) merger proved that no one gets a free pass. The DoJ said it would eliminate a viable competitor but DT had already said it wanted to exit the U.S. market. Almost everyone predicted smooth sailing (even a friend of mine who was an esteemed economist at UC Berkeley, who was doing consulting for ATT to support the merger - we had some great arguments about why it would/would not fly and, needless to say, he ended up buying me dinner).