I would assume the chances of awards opening mid Jan for Trans Pacific would be very slim. Most, if not all QF passengers who can upgrade will put in a request to join the upgrade lottery queue. QF know they can fill every front end seat without offering them on the open market.
I don't see that as a particularly likely assertion. Some people will request an upgrade but I suspect that many will not
I would also suspect that many would class paying 72,000 for an upgrade vs 96,000 for an outright award as poor value
I wouldn't be banking on additional availability opening up though