I would assume the chances of awards opening mid Jan for Trans Pacific would be very slim. Most, if not all QF passengers who can upgrade will put in a request to join the upgrade lottery queue. QF know they can fill every front end seat without offering them on the open market.

Only with top QF status would I even be thinking / hoping of getting an upgrade this time of the year.

As a data point, UA yesterday SYD-LAX and SYD-SFO both left with only one or two empty seats - both centre rows and somewhere down the back.