USIrritated, you're missing one important thing.
If someone isn't going to get the # of nights needed for the # of nights/points promo, they won't get any megabonus points at all! Nada, buptkus.
So in that case, certs are more valuable than points. Certs now have a 1-year expiration date. And while there are some not so great shake places to redeem, there are a # of excellent places to redeem them & even at not so great places, if there's a special event & the rates go sky high that's a good use of them.
Folks, this is not an either or thing. For some points will be better. For others certs will be better. And it varies each time a promo happens, as people's travel patterns can change throughout a year.
Speaking for myself there are times when points were more important & I knew I'd hit the nights needed to get them. For others I knew I wouldn't hit the nights, so the certs became more important.
I'm just glad that, even if inconsistently, Marriott does allow changes vs. just doing a blanket no to everyone.
Cheers.