Ha! Sure seems like everyone has a business out there somewhere

Thanks so much for your reply.

1. My personal monthly spend is about $800. Sometimes my credit card bills are higher though, because I sometimes travel for work. That adds in about another 300-500 per month, for travel months. Problem is, I have nooo way to predict travel! I cover hotels, dining and transit costs when I travel (and then am reimbursed). But there's no real rhyme or reason to how much I travel, so it's really hard to predict.

2. I know this is going to hurt you, but I don't have exact goals. I know I will be taking a couple of trips to weddings and family trips this year, but don't have a concrete goal I'm working toward. I have plenty of miles on American right now to handle a few of those weddings, so I'm not particularly concerned about miles. I'm down to 10K miles on United bc I just redeemed a ton, but don't know of a need for them in the coming year. I'm basically mostly interested in maximizing the cash back side of the rewards, though I'll admit I might use them to redeem travel if it proves helpful. That 20% discount is huge!

I guess I keep getting stuck because the Capital One 1.5% cash back sounds so much higher than 1.07? And since a lot of the benefits of UR are hypothetical (unless I do end up using them), I'm having a hard time quantifying the potential benefits.